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The
Fastest Online Get Busier While The Rest Get Left Behind |
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By
Dan Ness, Principal Analyst, MetaFacts, February 18, 2005 |
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Broad public
awareness about the Digital Divide was only a warm-up drill – a
substantial group of Americans are now being left even further behind.
While the growing economic and educational divide get lots of coverage,
less attention has been given to the implications of the growing rift
between the fast-connected and slow-connected. Furthermore, broadband
adoption has stalled among the heaviest online users.
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Why is this important?
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Product planners,
technologists, consumer marketers, governments, and even pollsters that
imagine that all Internet users are high-speed and equal are missing the
mark. The very people they are trying to reach with rich, streaming
music or video content are a subset of the market and while growing in
numbers, have dropped as a percent of those online. While
broadband-attached users are increasing their time online, the ranks of
dial-up users have swelled and are spending less time online. Internet
users without fast, persistent connections might even pull the plug out
of frustration.
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According to the
current edition of Technology User Profile, the longest-running
large-scale technology survey conducted in the U.S., this year marks the
first time in recent history that more than two-thirds (66.9%) of home
Internet users with broadband connections spent 11 or more hours online
per week. This is up from 62.9% in 2003. Also, heavy users have
increased their hours online, rising from 34.8% of home PCs in 2003 to
38.5% in 2004. The study surveyed 10,418 computer users and asked them
how many hours they spent actively on the Internet during a typical week
at home.
This may appear to
be rosy news for broadband providers, validating that users like what
they see and therefore increase their usage. However, not all of the
news is positive.
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Light users, those
with less than 11 hours online per week, have precipitously declining
broadband adoption rates, dropping from 30.2% in 2003 to less than a
quarter (24.2%) in 2004. At this point, this is due more to the entrance
of new users that typically don’t spend as much time online and that
don’t start with broadband connections, than being due to broadband
users pulling the plug.
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By
comparison, moderate users (11 or more hours per week)
and heavy users (21 or more hours per week) had flat
broadband adoption rates. Moderate users remained flat
with 46.9% having broadband in 2003 and 46.4% in 2004.
Broadband adoption by heavy users was also flat, with
51.5% in 2003 and 51.6% in 2004. So, it is not as if the
heaviest dial-up users are making the move to broadband.
Other factors at play are multiple-PC households,
wireless networks, and the growing adoption of computer
and online use by ever-younger users.
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Home/Family PCs by
Hours Online
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2003 |
2004 |
year/year difference |
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% of Projected Installed Home/Family PCs
actively online 11 or more hours per week |
52.2% |
51.3% |
-0.9% |
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% of Projected Installed Home/Family PCs
actively online 21 or more hours per week |
26.3% |
26.6% |
0.3% |
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% of Projected Installed Home/Family PCs
with broadband/Hi-Bandwidth connections and
actively online 11 or more hours per week |
63.1% |
66.9% |
3.8% |
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% of Projected Installed Home/Family PCs
with broadband/Hi-Bandwidth connections and
actively online 21 or more hours per week |
34.8% |
38.5% |
3.7% |
Source: MetaFacts,
Inc. – Technology User Profile – 2003 and 2004 Annual
Edition
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This mixed news may come as a shock to those that
believe that everyone is high-bandwidth like them. It
means that further shocks may crop up when those
expecting nothing but growth find that they face
declining numbers. Identifying those segments that are
at risk of reducing their use and catering to their
unique needs may help avoid such declines.
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Background & Methodology |
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Factual, decision-making information like this is
only found in one place, the Technology User Profile from MetaFacts. The
Technology User Profile market research information service is based on
extensive primary research selected and balanced to represent the American
population - including technology users and non-technology users. Drawn from
more than 30,000 surveys per year reporting on over 250 questions, it is the
longest-running, most comprehensive total market technology study available. TUPdates are brief
summaries of information contained in the Technology User Profile. |
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